Aside from a few showers and thunderstorms affecting the far northern and northwesternmost parts of the Tri-State earlier this afternoon, it's been a quiet day throughout the Ohio Valley; expect that to continue. The latest model data suggests that the strong to potentially Severe storms we're tracking across portions of Kansas, Missouri and Central Illinois will remain to our west and north this evening and overnight. Conditions will remain dry throughout the Tri-State overnight, but it's not expected to be a comfortable start to our Saturday. The combination of a breezy southerly wind flow and cloud cover aloft will only allow temperatures to dip as low as the mid 70s area wide - we'll only fall to 75° in the River City early Saturday.
Southwesterly winds gusting to 20 or 25 mph tomorrow morning and afternoon will help pump more Gulf heat and humidity northeastward up the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley Saturday - we'll climb back into the low 90s by the afternoon, but tomorrow's anticipated high of 91° could feel as hot as 97° at times due to the palpable humidity. If there's a silver lining here, it's that the model data now indicates that conditions will stay dry tomorrow under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Sunday looks similar - high temperatures will again reach into the low 90s with "feels like" temperatures inching toward 100°, but it is possible that some of us may see some isolated rain chances that afternoon.
The next week will be a damp one for many across the Midwest; while the combination of heat and humidity here will produce scattered and sporadic rain chances nearly every day during that period here at home, the greatest likelihood for significant rainfall and potential flooding during the next week has shifted further north. A stalled front may supply parts of Northern Indiana, Northern and Central Illinois and Northern Missouri with upwards of 6" of rain over the next week. Obviously with data projecting a week out there's still a lot of wiggle room here and the models a certainly subject to change, but as of now the Tri-State looks like it will see between 0.5" to 1.0" of rainfall between now and next Saturday.