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Is There a Connection with Weather and Election Results?

Can afternoon highs determine the next president?

Posted: Nov 2, 2020 2:01 PM

Election week is upon us although many Tri-Staters have taken advantage of early-voting, other local Americans will unfortunately have to brave the longer lines to cast their vote. While the decision on which candidates you will choose to represent your community is the top-priority; the decision made in the closet should be an easy one. The clear skies will continue with highs surging in the low-to-mid 60s. In fact, conditions will be quite seasonal. Our average normal high is 64°. Mother nature will be giving us a pleasant treat for tomorrow, however the trip to the polls has not always been a delight across the Tri-State.

Last year temperatures hovered around the freezing-mark around the time polls open. Luckily, the mercury rose into the mid-50s that afternoon. We also collected 0.15 rainfall that day. Things were not always seasonal; in 2003 the mercury peaked at 80-degrees which is the warmest Election day in the past 20 years. Just one year earlier, a cool 49° was recorded for a high marking the coldest day Tri-Staters experienced to cast their vote this century. The wettest Election Day was in 2004 where we received over an inch of rain.

An interesting trend was identified reviewing this statistical data over the past 5 presidential elections this century. Near-seasonal temperatures appear to favor victor for the Republican candidate while unseasonal conditions benefit a win for the Democratic candidate. Check it out:

The average temperature for early-November in Evansville is 64° for an afternoon high.

2000: 67° (+3°) - George W. Bush (R)
2004: 66° (+2°) - George W. Bush (R)
2008: 76° (+12°) - Barack Obama (D)
2012: 51° (-13°) - Barack Obama (D)
2016: 67° (+3°) - Donald Trump (R)

However, this correlation quickly falls apart if we look 4 years earlier in 1996. Evansville recorded a high of 68° (+4°) and Bill Clinton (D) was re-elected. As of now, Tuesday high is forecast to be near-season, the results will be interesting.

Evansville
Clear
33° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 33°
Owensboro
Clear
36° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 36°
Princeton
Clear
32° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 32°
Madisonville
Clear
35° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 35°
Jasper
Clear
34° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 34°
A plunge of Arctic air could give parts of the Tri-State some snowflakes Monday
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