After initially upgrading the Tri-State's threat for Severe Weather to a "3" on the Threat Index early this morning, the Storm Prediction Center of America has dropped much of the region back down to a "2" - this however, doesn't mean we're out of the woods quite yet; we're still expected to see an active 36 hours ahead of us. Following our gloomy start to the day, sunshine has returned to the Tri-State - essentially recharging the atmosphere prior to the arrival of tonight's storm chances. While we may encounter a few pop-up showers or thunderstorms between 6PM and 10PM this evening, the period is expected to remain primarily dry: it's only after midnight that our chances for inclement weather increase.
The latest model data suggests that scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop across Western Tennessee and Kentucky just prior to midnight - from there the pop-up rainfall will shift northward into the Tri-State. There doesn't seem to be a significant threat from these initial bursts of rain, though it's possible that we may see some strong winds or small hail from a few cells - they will continue to affect the region through 3AM Tuesday. The main event however won't likely get underway for the Ohio Valley until 4AM or so; a cluster of storms first developing over the Oklahoma/Arkansas boarder late Monday night will rush northeastward and reach the Tri-State before Tuesday morning's commute.
There's a high likelihood that some of the cells embedded within this cluster could produce damaging straight-line winds in excess of 60 mph and hail larger than an inch and diameter. There's even evidence to suggest broad tornadic rotation may periodically form within this cluster of storms tomorrow morning, so it's important to remain weather aware during the predawn hours Tuesday. The greatest threat for Severe Weather will likely occur between the hours of 4AM and 8AM Tuesday morning - obviously your morning commute will be impacted by these potentially Severe storms, though (much like Monday) our afternoon and early evening look quiet.
Another round of strong to potentially Severe storms looks like it could impact the region Tuesday evening. Rainfall forming along the back edge of a passing a cold front will intensify around tomorrow evening's commute. The latest guidance indicates that the worst of these storms will pass though between the hours of 6PM and 10PM Tuesday and may produce strong winds and small hail as they traverse the region. Thankfully, Tuesday evening's anticipated storms will pale in comparison to what is headed our way early tomorrow morning. Once the last of the rain exits east Tuesday night, we can finally let out a collative sigh of relief and let down our guard - Wednesday looks beautiful. Expect an afternoon high near 64° under mostly sunny skies.